House prices fall back to 2006 level

House prices fall back to 2006 level
By Norma Cohen, Economics Correspondent

Published: May 8 2009 09:41 | Last updated: May 8 2009 09:41

UK house prices in April fell for the fourteenth month in a row, leaving the average home valued at no more than it was three years ago, according to the latest FT House Price Index.

House prices in England and Wales in April fell by 1.1 per cent from the month before, and confirm the trend – if not the precise level of decline – seen in the widely-watched mortgage lender indices compiled by Nationwide and Halifax.

Peter Williams, chairman of Acadametrics, which compiles the Index on behalf of the FT, said there was little to indicate that the bottom of the housing market had been reached.

“The evidence from across the market remains mixed and there were few who were confidently predicting the bottom of the market,” Mr Williams said. Although recent surveys of consumer confidence show an improving trend, and the number of transactions has risen recently, overall turnover remains very depressed.

The latest data show the weakness in house prices is widely spread, with all regions in England and Wales sharing the pain – whether on a monthly or annual basis.

Wales, which had much sharper declines in housing values last year than the rest of the country, was the only area to show a drop of less than 10 per cent for the year through April.

In fact, Acadametrics noted, Wales was one of the first regions to experience negative annual growth in house prices, raising the possibility that it may be the first to actually hit bottom. “This is not so much ‘green shoots’ recovery, but a reluctance by sellers to reduce prices any further,” Mr Williams said.

Indeed, the fall in the number of transactions overall is striking. In the first quarter of 2009, sales were down by 54 per cent from the first quarter of 2008, and within some towns, the decline in the number of sales has been dramatic. For example, transactions were down by 72 per cent in Thurrock, by 67 per cent in Luton and in Slough.

The region with the highest year-on-year decline is the southeast, one of the wealthiest regions, where prices were off 15.4 per cent since April 2008.

All counties and unitary districts have recorded falling prices over the past three months on an annualised basis, albeit at varying rates. The most severe declines were in south Gloucestershire – where prices were down 19.3 per cent, and in Brighton and Hove, where they were down 19.2 per cent.

The smallest declines over three months on an annualised basis were seen in Rutland where prices fell by a modest 1.9 per cent and in Pembrokeshire where they were off by 3.2 per cent.

Within London, which is showing one of the largest declines in price terms of any region in the nation, 32 out of 33 boroughs saw declines. The exception was the City of London which has a very small number of privately owned homes and frequently records volatile changes in house prices

House Prices Slump in February

House prices are falling at a new record rate of 17.7 per cent after a shock rise in January was reversed last month.

Prices slid 2.3 per cent in February which more than wiped out the 2 per cent rise the previous month, according to Britain’s biggest mortgage lender Halifax.

The average home in the UK is now worth £160,321. The most recent slump has pushed up the annual plunge in value to a new high of 17.7 per cent.

This is based on the group’s preferred measure of comparing prices during the previous three months with the same period a year earlier.

Economists had cautioned against reading too much into the surprise 2 per cent rise Halifax reported for January. Today’s figures are in line with Nationwide’s for February.

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said the latest slump confirms January’s rise was ‘an anomaly’.

‘House prices remain very much on a downward track,’ he said.

House prices have now fallen back to a level last seen in August 2004, although Halifax said there were ‘tentative signs’ the market was starting to stabilise.

Price falls of 3.6 per cent during the three months to the end of February, were a slight improvement on recent drops of between 5 and 6 per cent over the same time frame.

Martin Ellis, housing economist at Halifax, said: ‘Whilst market activity remains at very low levels, there are some tentative signs that activity may be beginning to stabilise.

‘Continuing pressures on incomes, rising unemployment and the negative impact of the dislocation of the financial markets on the availability of mortgage finance are, however, likely to mean that 2009 will be another difficult year for the housing market.’

The house-price-to-earnings ratio, a key measure of affordability, fell to its lowest level for six years in February to 4.42.

This is 24 per cent lower than when the ratio peaked at 5.84 in July 2007, although it still remains above the long-term average of 4.

The latest figures come as the Bank of England was expected to announce another 0.5 per cent reduction in the base rate, reducing it to a new record low of 0.5.

It is also expected to vote to begin ‘quantitative easing’ under which it will increase the supply of money in a bid to pull the UK out of recession.

Another interest rate cut will probably have little impact on the housing market.

The majority of lenders did not pass on February’s cut to their standard variable-rate borrowers, and new mortgage rates have not fallen in line with the recent reductions.

There are also fears that another cut will discourage savers, who have already seen the returns paid on deposit accounts fall to record lows, from putting money in banks.

This would further reduce the supply of funds that groups have for lending, intensifying the mortgage drought